TJ Friedl's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over his 0.5 line in the last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. Currently riding a five-game under streak, Friedl is averaging 0.2 homers per game against the standard 0.5 line. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
TJ Friedl's power drought represents a clear market inefficiency, with books still pricing him at 0.5 home runs despite overwhelming evidence of diminished pop. The 0.2 average against a 0.5 line creates a massive -0.3 differential that screams systematic mispricing. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental shift in Friedl's offensive profile during this stretch. The five-game under streak indicates persistent mechanical or approach issues rather than temporary bad luck. Friedl's speed-first skill set has always made him more of a doubles and triples threat than a true power hitter, and this recent sample confirms that reality. The 52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates sharp money has already identified this edge, yet books remain slow to adjust. The lack of split data actually strengthens the case, suggesting consistent underperformance across all situations rather than matchup-dependent struggles. With no recent uptick in exit velocity or barrel rate visible in the results, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression. The market's stubborn 0.5 line pricing creates continued value on unders until Friedl shows tangible signs of power returning.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 20% over rate combined with a -0.3 differential to the line represents exceptional value that sharp bettors are already exploiting. Friedl's speed-over-power profile makes 0.5 home runs an inflated number, and the five-game under streak suggests persistent issues rather than bad variance. Target this under in all situations until the market adjusts or Friedl shows concrete power improvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
TJ Friedl has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his home run props in the last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He's averaged 0.2 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.3 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on TJ Friedl's home run props with high confidence. The 20% over rate and -0.3 differential to the line represent clear value, especially with his current five-game under streak indicating persistent power struggles rather than temporary variance.
What's TJ Friedl's average Home Runs last 10 games?
TJ Friedl is averaging 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, well below the standard 0.5 line. This creates a substantial -0.3 differential that strongly favors under bettors and suggests the market is overvaluing his power output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target TJ Friedl home run unders consistently across all situations given the persistent 0.5 line pricing. The lack of split-dependent performance means this edge exists regardless of matchup, making it a reliable betting opportunity until market correction occurs.