TJ Friedl has been a consistent under performer on hits props, going 3-7 O/U (30% overs) over his last 10 games while averaging just 1.1 hits against a 1.8 line. The -0.7 differential and +33.6% under ROI create a compelling fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Friedl's recent hitting struggles represent more than simple variance - they reflect a fundamental shift in his offensive production during late September. Averaging 1.1 hits per game against books consistently setting his line at 1.8 suggests oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his current form. The -42.7% over ROI demonstrates how consistently betting overs has burned money, while the +33.6% under ROI shows the market inefficiency. His current two-game under streak follows a pattern where his longest under streak reached three games, indicating sustained periods of poor contact. The 70% under rate over this sample isn't just bad luck - it's systematic underperformance that often persists when hitters face timing issues or mechanical problems late in seasons. September baseball frequently sees players either completely locked in or struggling with fatigue, and Friedl clearly falls into the latter category. The consistency of this trend, with only brief two-game over streaks breaking up longer under runs, suggests his timing and approach remain compromised. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating continued value on unders until his form dramatically improves or the season ends.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Friedl's sustained hitting struggles and the market's slow adjustment create clear value on under 1.5 hits props. The 70% under rate and significant negative differential indicate books haven't properly recalibrated expectations. Target unders when his line remains at 1.5 or higher, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his struggles amplify.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Hits prop record last 10 games?
TJ Friedl has gone 3-7 O/U on hits props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. He's averaging 1.1 hits per game against books typically setting his line at 1.8.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on TJ Friedl's hits props. His 70% under rate and -0.7 differential from the line create clear value, especially when books set his line at 1.5 or higher in upcoming games.
What's TJ Friedl's average Hits last 10 games?
TJ Friedl is averaging 1.1 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.8 line, creating a significant -0.7 differential that heavily favors under bettors in recent action.
How reliable is this trend?
Target TJ Friedl under props when his line remains 1.5+ hits, particularly in day games or against quality starting pitching where his current timing issues become more pronounced and exploitable.