Teoscar Hernández's total bases props present a clear under opportunity with a 37.8% over rate across 82 games in 2024. The Dodgers outfielder averages 2.01 total bases against a typical 2.33 line, creating a -0.32 differential that has generated +18.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Teoscar Hernández's total bases production falling short of market expectations throughout 2024. His 31-51 over-under record reflects a fundamental disconnect between his actual output and the betting lines set by oddsmakers. The -0.32 differential between his 2.01 average and the standard 2.33 line suggests books are overvaluing his power potential, likely influenced by his reputation and the Dodgers' offensive environment. This isn't a small sample fluke—82 games provide substantial evidence of a sustainable edge. The current two-game under streak fits the broader pattern, though his longest under streak reached eight games, indicating the market has been slow to adjust. What makes this trend particularly attractive is the consistency of the underperformance. Hernández isn't wildly volatile; he's systematically falling short of inflated expectations. The +18.7% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just about win rate but profitable betting opportunities. His longest over streak was only five games, suggesting even his hot streaks are manageable for under bettors. The key factor appears to be that oddsmakers are pricing in too much power upside for a player whose actual production has been more modest and consistent than explosive.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 62.2% under rate and +18.7% ROI create a solid foundation for continued under betting on Teoscar Hernández total bases props. Target spots where the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as the data shows he consistently falls short of elevated expectations. The main risk is a prolonged hot streak, but his longest over run was just five games, making this a manageable downside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Teoscar Hernández's Total Bases prop record all games?
Teoscar Hernández went over his total bases prop in 31 of 82 games (37.8%) during 2024, producing a 31-51 record. This translates to unders hitting at a 62.2% rate with a profitable +18.7% return on investment for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Teoscar Hernández Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Teoscar Hernández total bases props. His 62.2% under rate and +18.7% ROI provide a clear edge, with his 2.01 average consistently falling short of typical 2.33 lines by 0.32 total bases per game.
What's Teoscar Hernández's average Total Bases all games?
Teoscar Hernández averages 2.01 total bases per game in 2024, which is 0.32 below the typical line of 2.33. This consistent underperformance relative to market expectations has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Teoscar Hernández total bases unders when the line is set at 2.5 or higher, as this maximizes the gap between his actual production and market expectations. The 82-game sample shows consistent underperformance regardless of specific game situations.