Taylor Ward has delivered one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball, going just 1-9 on home run overs with a brutal -80.9% ROI. His 0.1 average sits 0.4 homers below the typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Ward's home run drought represents a catastrophic collapse in power production during the season's final stretch. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against a standard 0.5 line creates an enormous 0.4 differential that books haven't adequately adjusted for. The 9-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects a fundamental shift in Ward's approach or physical condition during September's grind. Late-season fatigue often saps power numbers, particularly for players like Ward who rely more on timing than raw strength. His swing mechanics may have deteriorated, or opposing pitchers discovered exploitable patterns in his approach. The sample size of 10 games provides meaningful insight into his current form, especially given the consistency of the results. Only one over in ten games suggests this isn't a temporary slump but a sustained period of diminished power output. The +71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adjustment to Ward's declining production. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the late-season timing and sustained nature of this trend suggest structural issues rather than mere bad luck. Ward's power outage appears deeply rooted in his current mechanics and approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Ward's 90% under rate over ten games reflects a genuine power decline that books haven't fully priced in. The 0.4 differential between his average and the line creates immediate value. Target unders when the line sits at 0.5, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his limited power becomes even more pronounced.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Taylor Ward's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Ward has gone 1-9 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of over bets. He's managed only one home run total during this stretch, creating a massive 90% under rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Taylor Ward Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Ward's 0.1 average sits 0.4 below the typical 0.5 line, and his 9-game under streak reflects genuine power decline rather than temporary variance.
What's Taylor Ward's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Ward is averaging 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.4 homers below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ward home run unders when lines sit at 0.5, particularly in day games or against quality pitching staffs. His diminished power becomes even more exploitable in challenging hitting conditions.