Steven Kwan's Total Bases prop shows extreme under bias at home with a devastating 29.3% over rate across 41 games. His 1.59 average falls 0.4 bases short of typical lines, producing +35.0% ROI on unders. This represents a strong systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Steven Kwan's home Total Bases performance reveals a contact-oriented hitter whose approach fundamentally conflicts with prop pricing. His 1.59 average at home sits significantly below the 1.96 baseline, creating consistent value on unders. This isn't random variance — it's systematic underperformance driven by Kwan's profile as a high-contact, low-power player who prioritizes getting on base over driving for extra bases. The -44.1% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to his true home tendencies. Progressive Field's dimensions favor gap power, but Kwan lacks the raw strength to capitalize, instead settling for singles and walks. The seven-game under streak demonstrates how this edge can compound, while the maximum two-game over streak shows his ceiling limitations. With no meaningful splits data suggesting situational variance, this appears to be a stable pattern rooted in his fundamental hitting approach rather than temporary form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Steven Kwan's home Total Bases props offer consistent value based on his contact-first approach that produces singles over extra-base hits. The 35.0% under ROI and 70.7% under rate create a sustainable edge, though the moderate confidence reflects the inherent volatility of individual game props. Target this when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, as his 1.59 home average provides the clearest margin.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Steven Kwan's Total Bases prop record home games?
Steven Kwan has gone under his Total Bases prop in 29 of 41 home games (70.7%) with an average of 1.59 total bases. This 12-29 over/under record represents one of the most consistent under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Steven Kwan Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Steven Kwan's Total Bases props at home. His 70.7% under rate and +35.0% ROI on unders creates sustainable value, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher given his 1.59 average.
What's Steven Kwan's average Total Bases home games?
Steven Kwan averages 1.59 Total Bases in home games compared to typical lines around 1.96, creating a -0.4 differential. This gap represents the core value proposition for betting his unders consistently at Progressive Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Steven Kwan Total Bases unders when lines are 1.5+ and he's facing quality pitching that limits extra-base opportunities. His contact-first approach is most exploitable against pitchers who can challenge the zone and force weak contact.