Spencer Torkelson has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 20% over his total bases props across 10 games with a brutal -0.7 differential from the 2.1 line. Currently riding a two-game under streak with his longest under streak reaching five games. The under presents compelling value.
Expert Analysis
Torkelson's total bases struggles reflect a broader offensive collapse that extends beyond simple variance. Averaging just 1.4 total bases against a 2.1 line represents a massive 33% shortfall that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his declining form or he's facing a perfect storm of negative factors. The 20% over rate is particularly damning when you consider that even struggling hitters typically hover around 40-45% due to the occasional multi-hit game or extra-base knock. Torkelson's inability to string together quality at-bats has created a systematic edge for under bettors, evidenced by the exceptional +52.7% ROI. The five-game under streak within this sample indicates sustained struggles rather than isolated poor performances. His current two-game under streak suggests he remains mired in the same issues that have plagued this entire stretch. Without visible signs of mechanical adjustments or favorable matchup spots, this trend appears more structural than cyclical, making it a high-conviction fade opportunity until the market properly adjusts his lines downward.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Torkelson's 0.7 total bases deficit per game represents a systematic market inefficiency that hasn't corrected itself over 10 games. The 20% over rate combined with his current struggles creates exceptional under value. Target this prop when his line remains at 2.0 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust to his offensive decline.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Spencer Torkelson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Torkelson has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 20% of the time. He's averaging 1.4 total bases per game against a typical 2.1 line, creating a significant -0.7 differential that has been profitable for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Spencer Torkelson Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Torkelson's 20% over rate and -0.7 average differential represent a clear systematic edge. The market hasn't properly adjusted to his struggles, creating exceptional value on under bets until his lines drop significantly below 2.0 total bases.
What's Spencer Torkelson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Torkelson is averaging just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 2.1 line, creating a massive -0.7 differential. This 33% shortfall from market expectations represents one of the most significant underperformances you'll find in player props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Torkelson total bases unders when his line remains at 2.0 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust. Avoid betting when facing soft pitching matchups or in hitter-friendly parks, as these represent his best opportunities to exceed expectations and break the trend.