Simeon Woods Richardson has been a strikeout underperformer, going just 3-7-0 O/U (30.0%) on his strikeout props over his last 10 starts. Averaging 3.7 strikeouts against a 4.4 line creates a significant -0.7 differential that favors under betting with strong +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Woods Richardson's strikeout struggles reflect deeper issues with his pitch arsenal and command that make him a consistent under target. The rookie right-hander's 3.7 strikeout average against 4.4 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his limited swing-and-miss ability in his first full MLB season. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of failing to reach inflated expectations. The 30% over rate indicates systematic overvaluation, likely due to his prospect pedigree and occasional flashes of dominance that inflate public perception. Woods Richardson's strikeout ceiling appears capped by his developing secondary pitches and tendency to work around the strike zone rather than challenge hitters directly. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market misprices his strikeout potential, while the +33.6% under ROI represents genuine value for sharp bettors. This isn't simply variance or small sample noise—it's a fundamental disconnect between his actual strikeout ability and market perception. The rookie's approach prioritizes contact management over swing-and-miss, making him particularly vulnerable when books set lines expecting veteran-level strikeout production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Woods Richardson's systematic underperformance against strikeout lines represents a clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. The -0.7 differential combined with 70% under success rate and strong +33.6% ROI creates compelling value. Target unders especially when lines remain at 4+ strikeouts, as his contact-heavy approach consistently fails to reach these inflated expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Simeon Woods Richardson's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Woods Richardson went 3-7-0 O/U (30.0%) on strikeout props in his last 10 games, hitting under in 7 of 10 starts. He averaged 3.7 strikeouts against 4.4 lines for a -0.7 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Simeon Woods Richardson Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet UNDER with high confidence. Woods Richardson's 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders shows clear value, while his -0.7 average differential indicates consistent underperformance against inflated strikeout lines.
What's Simeon Woods Richardson's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Woods Richardson averaged 3.7 strikeouts over his last 10 games against an average line of 4.4. This -0.7 differential demonstrates he consistently falls short of market expectations by nearly one full strikeout per start.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Woods Richardson strikeout unders when lines are set at 4+ strikeouts, especially in road games or against patient lineups. His contact-heavy approach makes him most vulnerable when oddsmakers expect veteran-level strikeout production.