Shohei Ohtani's home run prop at Dodger Stadium presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 33.3% of overs across 39 games with a massive -36.4% ROI on the over. Averaging 0.38 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, Ohtani has consistently underperformed expectations at home, creating sustainable value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Ohtani's home performance that contradicts public perception. His 13-26 over/under record at Dodger Stadium isn't just bad luck—it represents a fundamental disconnect between his reputation and actual production in home games. The 0.38 average against a standard 0.5 line creates an immediate 0.12 edge, which translates to the impressive +27.3% ROI on unders. Dodger Stadium's dimensions and conditions appear to suppress Ohtani's power output compared to his road performance, where he likely performs closer to his elite standards. The longest under streak of 8 games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, while the maximum over streak of just 3 games shows how rare his home power surges are. This isn't a small sample fluke—39 games represents nearly a quarter of a full season, providing statistical significance. The consistency of the underperformance suggests environmental factors at play, whether it's familiarity breeding predictability for opposing pitchers, specific stadium characteristics, or routine disruption. Most importantly, the betting market hasn't fully adjusted to this reality, continuing to price Ohtani's props based on his overall elite production rather than his demonstrably weaker home splits.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 67% under rate and +27.3% ROI create clear value, but Ohtani's elite talent prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target spots where the line sits at 0.5, maximizing the 0.12 average differential. The main risk is regression to his true talent level, as elite hitters typically don't maintain such dramatic home/road splits long-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs prop record home games?
Ohtani's home run prop record at home games is 13-26-0 over/under, hitting just 33.3% of overs. This represents a clear pattern of underperformance at Dodger Stadium across 39 games, with unders providing consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shohei Ohtani Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Ohtani's home run props at Dodger Stadium. The 67% under rate and +27.3% ROI over 39 games creates clear value, especially when the line is set at 0.5 where his 0.38 average provides maximum edge.
What's Shohei Ohtani's average Home Runs home games?
Ohtani averages 0.38 home runs per game at Dodger Stadium, running 0.12 below the typical 0.5 line. This consistent underperformance against market expectations has created sustained value on the under throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ohtani home run unders when the line is exactly 0.5, maximizing the 0.38 average differential. Avoid after his rare hot streaks, as the market may temporarily adjust. Best value comes in standard pricing situations at Dodger Stadium.