Sal Frelick's home run prop presents one of baseball's most extreme under trends, going 1-47-0 with a microscopic 2.1% over rate across 48 games. His 0.02 average sits a massive 0.5 runs below typical lines, generating +86.9% ROI on unders. This is a premium fade-the-power opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Frelick's home run futility stems from his contact-oriented profile that prioritizes batting average over power production. His current 47-game under streak reflects a player whose swing mechanics and approach simply don't generate the launch angle and exit velocity needed for consistent home run production. The 0.02 average against 0.52 lines reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his lack of power ceiling, creating persistent value on unders. This isn't a slump or bad luck sequence—it's fundamental player identity. Frelick's role as a table-setter means he's focused on getting on base rather than driving balls out of the park. The -96.0% over ROI shows how consistently this prop fails to cash, while the +86.9% under ROI demonstrates the profit potential. Without significant swing changes or physical development, this trend should persist. The extreme nature of this streak (47 consecutive unders) might create hesitation, but it reflects genuine skill limitations rather than variance. Regression toward league averages seems unlikely given Frelick's established profile and approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Frelick's contact-first approach and lack of power ceiling make this one of baseball's most reliable under bets. The 47-game streak isn't fluky—it's fundamental player identity meeting inflated lines. Best conditions are any standard 0.5 home run line, as books haven't adjusted to his true power level. Main risk is a random cheap homer, but the 2.1% over rate suggests even that's unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Home Runs prop record all games?
Sal Frelick's home run prop record across all games is an extreme 1-47-0, with just one over in 48 total games. This translates to a 2.1% over rate and represents one of baseball's most lopsided prop trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Sal Frelick's home run props with high confidence. His 0.02 average against typical 0.5 lines, combined with 47 consecutive unders, creates reliable value. This reflects player identity, not variance.
What's Sal Frelick's average Home Runs all games?
Sal Frelick averages 0.02 home runs per game across his 48-game sample, sitting a massive 0.5 runs below the typical 0.52 line. This gap represents one of the largest differentials in baseball prop betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Any time Frelick faces a standard 0.5 home run line offers betting value, as books haven't adjusted to his true power ceiling. Road games might offer slightly better conditions due to unfamiliar ballpark dimensions.