Sal Frelick's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going under in 70% of his last 10 games with a devastating -1.0 differential from the typical 1.5 line. The Brewers outfielder is averaging just 0.6 hits per game against books expecting 1.6, creating clear value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Frelick's hitting struggles over this 10-game stretch represent a significant departure from what oddsmakers are pricing in. The 0.6 hits per game average suggests he's either facing tougher pitching matchups or dealing with mechanical issues that haven't been fully reflected in the betting lines. The 30% over rate is particularly striking when you consider that most casual bettors naturally gravitate toward overs on counting stats like hits. The longest under streak of three games indicates sustained poor performance rather than random variance, while the brief one-game over streaks suggest any hot stretches have been quickly extinguished. What makes this trend especially compelling is the consistency of the underperformance - this isn't a case of a few outlier games skewing the numbers. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of books being slow to adjust their expectations downward. However, bettors should be cautious about regression to the mean, especially if Frelick starts seeing more favorable matchups against weaker pitching staffs. The sample size, while meaningful, isn't massive enough to ignore the possibility of a quick turnaround if his approach at the plate improves.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Frelick's sustained hitting struggles and the books' apparent slow adjustment create legitimate value on under bets. The ideal spots are against quality starting pitching where his recent form aligns with difficult matchups. The main risk is regression - eventually his hit tool should produce better results, making timing crucial for this fade.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Frelick has gone 3-7 on his hits props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a strong under trend with 7 games falling below expectations versus only 3 exceeding the line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Hits last 10 games?
Bet the under on Frelick's hits props. He's averaging 0.6 hits per game against lines typically set around 1.5-1.6, creating clear value. The 70% under rate and sustained poor form make unders the smart play until he shows improvement.
What's Sal Frelick's average Hits last 10 games?
Frelick is averaging just 0.6 hits per game over his last 10 contests, a full hit below the typical 1.6 line that books have been setting. This massive -1.0 differential represents significant underperformance and creates betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Frelick hit unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in games where his recent struggles align with difficult matchups. Avoid betting when he faces weak pitching staffs where regression could quickly materialize and kill the edge.