Sal Frelick's hits prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting over just 30.8% of the time across 26 games with an average of 0.58 hits versus a typical 1.12 line. The massive -0.54 differential and +32.2% under ROI make this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Frelick's home hitting struggles represent a legitimate market inefficiency that bettors can exploit. His 0.58 hits per home game average sits dramatically below the standard 1.12 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 30.8% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects a young player still adjusting to major league pitching in the comfort of his home ballpark, where he might be pressing to perform for home crowds. The current three-game under streak extends a pattern of inconsistency, with his longest under streak reaching six games compared to just two consecutive overs. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the sample size of 26 games spanning over a year, suggesting this isn't merely a hot or cold streak but a fundamental characteristic of Frelick's home performance. The -41.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to his limited home production. Young players often show splits between home and road performance as they develop, and Frelick appears to be in that developmental phase where the pressure of home expectations actually hurts his relaxed approach at the plate.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Frelick's home hitting props offer exceptional value with a clear statistical edge that the market hasn't corrected. The 0.58 average against 1.12 lines creates automatic value, while the 30.8% over rate provides the reliability needed for sustained profit. Target games where he faces quality pitching or when the line sits at 1.5 hits for maximum edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sal Frelick's Hits prop record home games?
Frelick has gone 8-18-0 over/under on his hits prop in home games, hitting the over just 30.8% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing at a 69.2% clip across 26 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sal Frelick Hits home games?
Bet under on Frelick's hits props at home games. The data overwhelmingly supports this approach with a +32.2% ROI on unders compared to -41.3% on overs. His 0.58 average hits creates significant value against standard 1+ lines.
What's Sal Frelick's average Hits home games?
Frelick averages 0.58 hits per home game, which sits 0.54 hits below the typical 1.12 line. This massive differential represents one of the largest gaps between player performance and market expectations, creating consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Frelick hits unders when facing quality starting pitching or when the line is set at 1.5 hits. His home struggles are most pronounced against better pitchers, and higher lines provide even greater value given his 0.58 average.