Ryan McMahon's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.3 average differential from the line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, McMahon's power has completely vanished in late September. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of McMahon's September collapse at the plate. His 1.9 total bases average sits a full 1.3 bases below the typical 3.2 line, creating consistent value on unders with a remarkable +33.6% ROI. This isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained power outage from a player whose game revolves around extra-base hits. McMahon's current five-game under streak represents his season-long pattern of inconsistent power production, particularly troubling for a third baseman whose fantasy and betting value hinges on doubles and home runs. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of inflated lines that haven't adjusted to his recent struggles. What makes this trend particularly reliable is McMahon's profile as a streaky power hitter—when he's cold, he stays cold for extended periods. The Rockies' late-season positioning likely contributes to reduced urgency and aggressive swings. Without platoon advantages or favorable matchup data to suggest immediate improvement, this under trend appears sustainable. The consistency of the pattern—seven unders in ten games with no recent signs of breaking out—suggests books are slow to adjust lines downward for a player still carrying name recognition from earlier productive seasons.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. McMahon's sustained power drought creates clear line value, with his 1.9 average sitting well below typical 3+ lines. The five-game under streak and 70% under rate over ten games indicate persistent struggles rather than temporary variance. Main risk is a sudden power surge breaking the pattern, but his late-season profile suggests continued struggles. Target unders when lines remain at 3+ total bases.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ryan McMahon's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
McMahon went 3-7-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He's currently on a five-game under streak with only three overs total during this stretch, creating strong value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ryan McMahon Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on McMahon's total bases props. His 1.9 average sits 1.3 bases below typical lines, producing +33.6% ROI on unders. The five-game streak and 70% under rate show sustained struggles, not temporary variance.
What's Ryan McMahon's average Total Bases last 10 games?
McMahon averaged just 1.9 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.2 line, creating a massive -1.3 differential. This gap represents consistent value on under bets throughout his recent cold streak.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McMahon total bases unders when lines remain at 3+ bases, especially during his current late-season struggles. Avoid when lines drop below 2.5 or against particularly weak pitching that might inflate his numbers.