Ryan McMahon's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 37.5% overs across 136 games. His 1.76 average trails the typical 2.07 line by 0.3 bases, generating +19.3% ROI on unders. This systematic underperformance makes McMahon a consistent fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
McMahon's total bases struggles stem from fundamental offensive limitations that persist regardless of situation. His 1.76 average against a 2.07 line reveals a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers, likely due to Coors Field's reputation inflating expectations. The -0.3 differential isn't marginal—it represents a systematic gap between perception and reality. His current five-game under streak extends a pattern of inconsistency, with his longest under streak reaching 12 games compared to just seven overs maximum. This volatility favors under bettors who can capitalize on extended cold stretches. The 62.5% under rate across 136 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +19.3% under ROI demonstrates real market inefficiency. McMahon's profile suggests a player whose power numbers don't match the home park boost oddsmakers expect, creating persistent value on the under. Without split data showing dramatically different performance in specific conditions, this appears to be a player-specific trend rather than situational variance. The consistency of underperformance across a full season-plus sample indicates this isn't merely bad luck but reflects McMahon's true offensive ceiling being lower than market perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. McMahon's systematic underperformance creates consistent value, but the lack of situational data prevents a stronger stance. The 62.5% under rate and positive ROI provide solid foundation for fading his total bases props. Primary risk involves potential positive regression, though 136 games suggest this reflects true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ryan McMahon's Total Bases prop record all games?
McMahon's total bases prop record shows 51 overs and 85 unders across 136 games, hitting the over just 37.5% of the time. This 62.5% under rate represents significant market inefficiency over a substantial sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ryan McMahon Total Bases all games?
Bet under on McMahon's total bases props. His 1.76 average consistently falls short of typical 2.07 lines, generating +19.3% ROI on unders. The 62.5% under rate across 136 games provides strong statistical foundation for fading.
What's Ryan McMahon's average Total Bases all games?
McMahon averages 1.76 total bases per game compared to the typical 2.07 line, creating a -0.3 differential. This gap represents consistent underperformance relative to market expectations, particularly given his home park advantages at Coors Field.
How reliable is this trend?
Any game presents value for McMahon total bases unders given his consistent 62.5% under rate. Without situational splits available, focus on standard line shopping and bankroll management rather than waiting for specific conditions or matchups.