Ryan McMahon's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 2-8 against the over/under with a brutal 20% over rate. The third baseman is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game versus typical 0.6 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This represents a clear lean under with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
McMahon's power drought over this 10-game stretch reveals a player struggling with his swing mechanics and timing at the plate. The 0.2 home run average against 0.6 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating persistent value on the under. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a hitter whose launch angle and exit velocity have likely declined significantly. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—McMahon hasn't shown flashes of his former power, indicating this isn't just a temporary cold streak but potentially a fundamental shift in his approach or physical capability. The current five-game under streak reinforces that his swing isn't generating the lift needed for home runs. While Coors Field's altitude typically inflates power numbers, McMahon's struggles transcend ballpark factors. The lack of even a moderate hot streak (longest over streak of just one game) suggests his timing is completely off. However, power slumps can end abruptly in baseball, and McMahon's track record indicates he possesses legitimate home run ability when locked in.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. McMahon's 20% over rate and -0.4 differential create clear value, but power can return quickly in baseball. Target unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, especially in non-Coors Field games where his reduced exit velocity becomes more pronounced. The main risk is regression to his career norms, but current form suggests continued struggles with launch angle and timing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ryan McMahon's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
McMahon went 2-8 over/under on home run props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He managed only 2 home runs total while averaging 0.2 per game against typical 0.6 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ryan McMahon Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on McMahon's home run props. His 20% over rate and -0.4 differential create clear value, especially with lines at 0.5 or higher. Current form shows persistent power struggles.
What's Ryan McMahon's average Home Runs last 10 games?
McMahon averaged 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10, well below the typical 0.6 line. This -0.4 differential represents significant underperformance and suggests continued value on unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McMahon home run unders when lines are 0.5 or higher, particularly in road games away from Coors Field. His reduced exit velocity becomes more pronounced in less hitter-friendly environments.