Royce Lewis home runs have cratered over his last 10 games, going under in 9 of 10 contests with just 0.1 homers per game versus a 0.5 line. This 90% under rate represents one of the strongest prop trends in baseball. The under offers exceptional value with 71.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Royce Lewis's power outage over this 10-game stretch reflects a dramatic departure from his typical production, suggesting either mechanical issues or fatigue as the season winds down. The 0.4 differential between his actual output (0.1) and the standard line (0.5) indicates oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form. Lewis managed just one home run across these 10 games, creating a streak of futility rarely seen from a player of his caliber. The consistency of this underperformance—nine straight unders—suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine shift in his offensive approach or physical condition. September baseball often sees veterans rest or play through minor injuries, which could explain Lewis's diminished power numbers. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow reaction to his struggles, creating sustained value for sharp bettors. However, regression remains possible given Lewis's talent level, making each game increasingly dangerous for under backers as the sample grows.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Lewis's power has completely vanished over this stretch, and the 9-game under streak shows remarkable consistency that transcends normal variance. The 71.8% ROI on unders indicates the market hasn't caught up to his current form. Target games where he faces quality pitching or shows signs of mechanical struggles in batting practice.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Royce Lewis's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Royce Lewis has gone 1-9-0 over/under on home runs props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once (10%) while averaging only 0.1 homers per game against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Royce Lewis Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Royce Lewis home runs. His 90% under rate and 9-game under streak show a clear power outage, while the 71.8% ROI demonstrates strong betting value that the market hasn't corrected.
What's Royce Lewis's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Lewis is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, a massive 0.4 deficit compared to his typical 0.5 line, indicating severe underperformance in the power department.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lewis home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games following night games. His current form suggests consistent value regardless of matchup specifics given the sustained power drought.