Rob Refsnyder's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. Currently averaging 0.2 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, Refsnyder presents a strong lean under with his current six-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Rob Refsnyder's home run production has cratered over this 10-game sample, with his 0.2 average sitting a massive 0.3 below standard 0.5 lines. This isn't just bad luck - it reflects Refsnyder's role as a contact-oriented utility player who lacks the consistent power stroke needed for regular home run production. The 20.0% over rate screams systematic underperformance rather than variance, especially when paired with the current six-game under streak that shows no signs of breaking. Refsnyder's approach focuses on putting the ball in play and getting on base, which works against the swing-for-the-fences mentality needed to clear home run totals consistently. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the complete story - this is a player whose power output is being consistently overestimated by oddsmakers. While any hitter can catch lightning in a bottle for a game or two, Refsnyder's profile suggests this under trend has staying power. His longest over streak in this sample was just two games, indicating even his hot streaks are modest. The fundamentals haven't changed - he's still the same player who prioritizes contact over power, making these deflated home run totals the new reality rather than a temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Refsnyder's 0.2 home run average over this stretch reflects his true power ceiling better than inflated betting lines suggest. The six-game under streak and 20.0% over rate indicate systematic line inflation. Target under bets when lines sit at 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality arms. Main risk is the small sample size and potential for one hot game to skew recent results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rob Refsnyder's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Rob Refsnyder went 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He averaged 0.2 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a -0.3 differential that cost over bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rob Refsnyder Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet under on Refsnyder's home run props. His 20.0% over rate and current six-game under streak indicate consistent line inflation. The 0.2 average shows his true power level sits well below standard 0.5 betting totals.
What's Rob Refsnyder's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Refsnyder averaged 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.3 below typical 0.5 betting lines. This massive shortfall explains the brutal -61.8% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Refsnyder home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality opposing arms. His contact-first approach makes him vulnerable to inflated power expectations in most betting situations.