Riley Greene's Total Bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity with just 36.1% overs across 36 games. Greene averages 1.83 total bases against a typical 2.06 line, creating a -0.23 differential that has generated +22.0% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Greene's home Total Bases props.
Expert Analysis
Riley Greene's home struggles with Total Bases stem from a combination of Comerica Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his approach adjustment in familiar surroundings. The 1.83 average against 2.06 lines reveals consistent underperformance, not random variance. Comerica's spacious outfield (420 feet to center) particularly hurts Greene's extra-base potential, as his 36.1% over rate suggests he's consistently falling short of doubles and triples that would push him over inflated lines. The current five-game under streak isn't an outlier but rather typical of his home pattern. Most concerning for over bettors is the -31.1% ROI on overs, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to Greene's home limitations. His Total Bases props appear consistently overvalued at Comerica Park, where environmental factors and possibly pressing in front of home fans create a perfect storm for under results. The 22.0% ROI on unders across 36 games represents a significant sample size that suggests sustainable edge rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Riley Greene's Total Bases unders at home offer legitimate value with 22.0% ROI over 36 games. The 1.83 average against 2.06 lines creates consistent opportunities when books set props around 2.0. Target games where the line sits at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge. Main risk is a potential hot streak breaking the pattern, but Comerica Park's dimensions provide structural support for continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Riley Greene's Total Bases prop record home games?
Riley Greene's Total Bases prop record in home games stands at 13-23-0 over/under, hitting the over just 36.1% of the time across 36 games from May 2023 through September 2024, creating a strong under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Riley Greene Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Riley Greene's Total Bases props at home games. The data shows 63.9% under rate with +22.0% ROI, while overs lose money at -31.1% ROI. His 1.83 average consistently falls short of typical 2.0+ lines.
What's Riley Greene's average Total Bases home games?
Riley Greene averages 1.83 total bases in home games compared to typical prop lines around 2.06, creating a -0.23 differential. This gap represents consistent value on under bets when lines are set at 2.0 or higher.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Riley Greene Total Bases unders when props are set at 2.0 or higher at Comerica Park. The combination of pitcher-friendly dimensions and his 1.83 home average creates the strongest edge against inflated lines in Detroit.