Riley Greene's home run props at home present one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting just 13.5% overs across 37 games with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the standard 0.5 line. Currently riding a 10-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Riley Greene's home run struggles at Comerica Park reflect both ballpark factors and his natural hitting profile creating a perfect storm for under bettors. Comerica Park's dimensions (345' down the lines, 420' to center) and Detroit's typically cool weather suppress power numbers, particularly for left-handed hitters like Greene who must overcome the deeper right field. His 0.14 home runs per game average represents a massive 72% shortfall from the typical 0.5 line, indicating books haven't properly adjusted for his home environment. The current 10-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather confirmation of underlying factors. Greene's swing mechanics favor line drives over fly balls, making him more of a doubles hitter than a home run threat. His 13.5% over rate across 37 games provides substantial sample size validation. The consistency of this trend—with his longest over streak being just one game—suggests structural rather than variance-driven factors. Weather patterns in Detroit, combined with the ballpark's pitcher-friendly dimensions, create conditions where Greene would need perfect timing and exceptional exit velocity to clear the fences consistently.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Greene's systematic struggles with home run props at Comerica Park represent a clear market inefficiency, with books failing to account for ballpark suppression and his contact-oriented approach. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, especially during cooler months or afternoon games when conditions further favor pitchers. The primary risk involves small sample variance, but 37 games provide sufficient data to trust this edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Riley Greene's Home Runs prop record home games?
Riley Greene has gone 5-32 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 13.5% of his overs with an average of 0.14 home runs per game versus the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Riley Greene Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Greene's 13.5% over rate and -0.4 differential from the line represent a systematic edge, particularly at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park where his contact approach struggles.
What's Riley Greene's average Home Runs home games?
Greene averages 0.14 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.4 differential from the standard 0.5 line. This 72% shortfall indicates significant market inefficiency favoring under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Greene's home run unders during day games and cooler weather when Comerica Park's pitcher-friendly conditions are amplified. Avoid when he faces struggling pitchers or in rare hot weather.