Rafael Devers has been a consistent under performer on total bases props in away games, hitting under in 62.2% of contests with a brutal -27.8% ROI on overs. Currently riding an 11-game under streak, Devers averages just 1.97 total bases against a typical 2.09 line. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a significant market inefficiency with Rafael Devers total bases props in road environments. His 37.8% over rate across 37 away games represents a substantial deviation from the expected 50% break-even point, suggesting consistent line overvaluation. The -0.12 differential between his 1.97 average and the typical 2.09 line indicates books are pricing him roughly 6% too high on the road. This isn't a small sample fluke - we're looking at nearly a full season's worth of road games spanning over 16 months. The current 11-game under streak is particularly telling, as it suggests recent form aligns with the broader trend rather than fighting against it. Road environments typically present additional challenges for hitters, including unfamiliar ballparks, hostile crowds, and travel fatigue. For a player like Devers, who relies heavily on power production for total bases accumulation, these factors can significantly impact performance. The consistency of this trend, combined with the strong negative ROI on overs, suggests this is more than random variance. The market appears slow to adjust to Devers' documented road struggles, creating ongoing value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 62.2% under rate and devastating -27.8% over ROI create clear value, especially with Devers currently on an 11-game under streak. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.97 road average provides solid cushion. Main risk is positive regression, but the trend's persistence across 37 games suggests sustainable edge rather than temporary variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rafael Devers's Total Bases prop record away games?
Rafael Devers has gone under his total bases prop in 23 of 37 away games (62.2%) with a 14-23-0 over/under record. This represents a significant 12.2 percentage point edge over the expected 50% break-even rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rafael Devers Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Rafael Devers total bases in away games. His 37.8% over rate and -27.8% ROI on overs, combined with an active 11-game under streak, create clear value on the under side of this market.
What's Rafael Devers's average Total Bases away games?
Rafael Devers averages 1.97 total bases in away games compared to the typical line of 2.09. This -0.12 differential means he's falling short of market expectations by roughly 6% per game on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rafael Devers total bases unders when the line is set at 2.0 or higher in away games. His documented road struggles and current 11-game under streak create optimal conditions for continued underperformance against inflated market expectations.