Rafael Devers has been ice-cold at the plate, recording just one over in his last 10 games (10.0% over rate) while averaging 0.7 hits against a typical 1.7 line. The under has delivered a massive 71.8% ROI, making this one of the season's strongest fade candidates.
Expert Analysis
Devers's hitting collapse represents a dramatic departure from his career norms, with the third baseman managing just seven total hits across 10 games for a brutal 0.7 average. This isn't just bad luck — it's systematic offensive breakdown. The -1.0 differential between his production and the standard 1.7 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his current form, creating persistent value on unders. His current four-game under streak follows a season-long five-game drought, indicating this isn't a brief cold snap but a fundamental struggle. The 10.0% over rate is statistically extreme, well beyond normal variance for a player of Devers's caliber. While regression toward career means is inevitable, the severity of this downturn suggests underlying issues — whether mechanical adjustments, injury management, or late-season fatigue. The -80.9% over ROI confirms what the eye test shows: betting Devers overs has been financial suicide. Until he shows concrete signs of breaking out with multiple-hit games, the data overwhelmingly supports continuing to fade his hit totals, especially when lines remain inflated based on his reputation rather than current production.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Devers's 10.0% over rate and -1.0 line differential create exceptional under value that persists until he demonstrates sustained improvement. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5+ hits, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his struggles amplify. Primary risk is natural regression, but current form suggests more downside before any meaningful recovery begins.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Rafael Devers's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Rafael Devers has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his Hits prop in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once (10.0%) while recording seven total hits across those contests for a dismal 0.7 average.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Rafael Devers Hits last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Rafael Devers Hits props. His 10.0% over rate and -1.0 differential from typical lines create exceptional under value, with the trend showing 71.8% ROI compared to -80.9% for overs.
What's Rafael Devers's average Hits last 10 games?
Rafael Devers is averaging just 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, sitting a full hit below the standard 1.7 line and representing one of the season's most dramatic offensive collapses.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rafael Devers Hits unders when lines are set at 1.5+ hits, especially in day games or against quality starting pitching where his current struggles tend to be most pronounced and exploitable.