Pete Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 27.5% overs across 69 games. His 1.3 average sits 1.1 bases below the typical 2.43 line, generating +38.3% ROI on unders while currently riding a 10-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases struggles stem from his profile as a defense-first center fielder still developing his offensive game. His 1.3 average against a 2.43 line reveals books are pricing him based on positional expectations rather than actual production. The massive -1.1 differential indicates fundamental overvaluation, not temporary cold streaks. His current 10-game under streak represents the logical extension of season-long patterns rather than variance. The 27.5% over rate across 69 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the -47.4% ROI on overs shows consistent market mispricing. Crow-Armstrong's contact-oriented approach limits extra-base upside, and his rookie adjustment period suggests this isn't simply bad luck. The persistence of this trend through different matchups and situations indicates structural rather than situational factors. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating ongoing value. His defensive reputation may inflate offensive expectations, particularly in a Cubs lineup where he's often viewed as a complementary piece rather than primary offensive threat.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases props offer exceptional value with books consistently overpricing his offensive output. The 1.1-base differential between his average and typical lines, combined with 38.3% under ROI, creates a sustainable edge. Target games where lines remain at 2.5+ bases, as his contact-heavy approach and developing power make multi-base games unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases prop record all games?
Pete Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases record shows 19 overs and 50 unders across 69 games, hitting just 27.5% of over bets. His 1.3 season average sits significantly below the typical 2.43 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Pete Crow-Armstrong's Total Bases props. His 38.3% ROI on unders, 1.1-base average deficit, and current 10-game under streak indicate books consistently overprice his offensive output, making unders the clear value play.
What's Pete Crow-Armstrong's average Total Bases all games?
Pete Crow-Armstrong averages 1.3 Total Bases per game, sitting 1.1 bases below the typical 2.43 line. This massive differential explains his 27.5% over rate and demonstrates why unders provide consistent value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Crow-Armstrong Total Bases unders when lines remain at 2.5+ bases, which happens frequently due to his defensive reputation. His contact-oriented approach and developing power make these inflated lines consistently profitable to fade.