Pete Crow-Armstrong's home run props present one of the season's most lopsided trends, hitting over just 8.3% of the time across 72 games with a devastating -84.1% ROI on overs. His 0.1 home run average sits 0.46 runs below the typical 0.56 line, creating consistent under value.
Expert Analysis
Pete Crow-Armstrong's home run futility stems from a perfect storm of contact profile deficiencies that make him fundamentally unsuited for power production. His rookie season reveals a hitter who prioritizes contact and speed over launch angle optimization, averaging just 0.1 home runs per game against books consistently pricing him at 0.5+ home runs. The 23-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the natural result of a player whose swing mechanics and approach generate ground balls and line drives rather than the elevated contact needed for home runs. Crow-Armstrong's value lies in his defensive prowess and base-stealing ability, not power hitting. His 6-66 over-under record reflects a fundamental mismatch between his actual skill set and sportsbook pricing that appears to overvalue his athletic tools. The consistency of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and game situations suggests this isn't variance but rather books failing to properly adjust for a player whose power metrics lag significantly behind his other tools. With no meaningful power breakout indicators and a swing designed for contact over lift, regression toward more home runs seems unlikely.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pete Crow-Armstrong's 8.3% over rate and 75.0% under ROI create exceptional value on home run unders throughout his appearances. The 0.46-run gap between his average and typical lines represents a systematic pricing error by sportsbooks. Target unders when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly environments that further suppress his already minimal power output.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Crow-Armstrong's Home Runs prop record all games?
Pete Crow-Armstrong went over his home runs prop just 6 times in 72 games for an 8.3% over rate, posting a 6-66-0 record that generated a devastating -84.1% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoyed a 75.0% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Pete Crow-Armstrong's home runs props with high confidence. His 8.3% over rate and 0.46-run deficit versus typical lines create exceptional under value, particularly when books price him at 0.5 home runs or higher.
What's Pete Crow-Armstrong's average Home Runs all games?
Pete Crow-Armstrong averages 0.1 home runs per game, sitting 0.46 runs below the typical 0.56 betting line. This massive gap between production and pricing creates one of the season's most reliable under trends.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Crow-Armstrong home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact-first approach and lack of power development make unders valuable across most game situations.