Pete Alonso's Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.6% overs across 87 games. His 1.75 average sits 0.6 bases below the typical 2.32 line, generating +22.9% ROI on unders. The current 8-game under streak reinforces this systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fundamental disconnect between market perception and Alonso's actual production in Total Bases props. His 31-56 over/under record demonstrates consistent underperformance against inflated lines that likely factor in his power reputation without accounting for his all-or-nothing approach. The 0.6 base differential between his 1.75 average and the 2.32 line represents significant value, as even small edges compound dramatically over large samples. The streak data tells an even more compelling story - while his longest over streak reached just 3 games, Alonso has endured cold stretches of 13 consecutive unders, suggesting his production comes in volatile clusters rather than steady accumulation. This volatility works against over bettors who need consistent multi-base games. The current 8-game under streak isn't necessarily due for regression given his historical patterns. Books appear slow to adjust lines downward, creating persistent value on unders. The -32.0% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the market's overvaluation of Alonso's total bases ceiling in typical game conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 22.9% ROI on unders combined with Alonso's consistent underperformance creates a sustainable edge. Target unders when lines sit at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.75 average provides cushion even during hot streaks. Primary risk is a prolonged power surge that could temporarily inflate his base accumulation, but his historical volatility suggests such stretches are brief.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Total Bases prop record all games?
Pete Alonso's Total Bases record across all games shows 31 overs and 56 unders from 87 total games, hitting the over just 35.6% of the time. This poor over rate has generated a -32.0% ROI for over bettors while under bets have produced a profitable +22.9% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's Total Bases props. His 1.75 average sits well below typical 2.32 lines, creating consistent value on unders with +22.9% ROI. The current 8-game under streak reinforces this edge, and his volatile production style favors under betting.
What's Pete Alonso's average Total Bases all games?
Pete Alonso averages 1.75 Total Bases per game across all situations, which falls 0.6 bases short of the typical 2.32 prop line. This significant gap between his actual production and market expectations creates the foundation for profitable under betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.75 average provides maximum value. Avoid betting during the first few games after extended under streaks, but his historical volatility suggests cold stretches persist longer than hot ones.