Pete Alonso's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under the prop in 9 of 10 contests with a brutal -80.9% ROI on overs. The Mets slugger is averaging just 0.1 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that screams regression.
Expert Analysis
Pete Alonso's recent home run drought represents one of the most extreme cold streaks you'll see from a premier power hitter. Averaging 0.1 home runs over 10 games while facing 0.5 lines creates a staggering -0.4 differential that defies his established talent level. This isn't just bad luck—it's historically anomalous for a player who typically sits among MLB's elite power producers. The 7-game under streak currently running suggests either a mechanical issue, fatigue from the season's grind, or simply the natural variance that even elite hitters experience. However, regression to the mean becomes increasingly likely with each game this trend persists. The -80.9% ROI on overs indicates the market hasn't fully adjusted to this cold spell, potentially creating value on the flip side. Late-season factors could be at play—perhaps pressing in crucial games, facing better pitching in playoff races, or dealing with undisclosed minor injuries. The sample size, while significant enough to notice, isn't large enough to completely override Alonso's established power profile. When elite sluggers run this cold, the snapback often comes suddenly and dramatically.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. While the recent data screams under, this level of power suppression from Pete Alonso is unsustainable long-term. The market likely hasn't corrected enough for his established talent, creating potential value on overs in favorable spots—particularly at home against weaker pitching. The main risk is this cold streak extending further, but regression probability increases with each additional game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Pete Alonso has gone under his home run prop in 9 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 10.0% over rate. This represents one of the worst stretches for any elite power hitter this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Home Runs last 10 games?
Lean over on Pete Alonso home run props despite the recent trend. Elite power hitters like Alonso don't stay this cold forever, and the market likely hasn't fully adjusted for inevitable regression to his established talent level.
What's Pete Alonso's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Pete Alonso is averaging just 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that's historically unsustainable for a player of his caliber.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso home run overs in favorable matchups at Citi Field against weaker right-handed pitching. Avoid when he's facing elite velocity or in high-pressure situations where he might be pressing at the plate.