Pete Alonso's home hits props present a compelling under opportunity with a brutal 37.8% over rate across 45 games. His 0.93 average falls 0.35 hits short of typical 1.28 lines, generating an 18.8% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage -27.9%.
Expert Analysis
Pete Alonso's home hitting struggles reflect a concerning pattern that extends beyond normal variance. The 0.93 hits per game average at Citi Field represents a significant departure from what books typically price at 1.28, creating a persistent 0.35-hit gap that has proven remarkably consistent across this 45-game sample. The 62.2% under rate isn't just strong—it's dominant enough to suggest structural factors at play. Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions likely contribute, as does the pressure of performing in front of demanding New York fans. The current three-game under streak aligns with his longest under streak of four games, indicating this isn't an aberration but part of a sustainable pattern. What makes this trend particularly valuable is its consistency across different matchups and situations, suggesting the home environment itself is the primary driver rather than specific opposing pitching styles. The -27.9% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about betting against this trend, while the +18.8% under ROI demonstrates the profit potential of riding it. With no apparent regression signs and the underlying factors remaining constant, this represents one of the more reliable home/road splits in baseball props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pete Alonso's home hits props offer exceptional value with a 62.2% under rate and +18.8% ROI over 45 games. The 0.35-hit differential between his actual performance and typical lines creates consistent profit opportunities. Target this when lines are set at 1.2 or higher, particularly against quality pitching where Citi Field's dimensions amplify the challenge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pete Alonso's Hits prop record home games?
Pete Alonso has gone 17-28 on hits overs in home games, hitting just 37.8% of overs across 45 games from June 2023 to September 2024, making unders highly profitable.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pete Alonso Hits home games?
Bet under on Pete Alonso's hits props at home. The 62.2% under rate and +18.8% ROI over 45 games make this one of the strongest home trends in baseball.
What's Pete Alonso's average Hits home games?
Pete Alonso averages 0.93 hits per home game, significantly below the typical 1.28 betting line, creating a consistent 0.35-hit edge for under bettors across this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pete Alonso hits unders when lines are 1.2+ and he's facing quality pitching at Citi Field, where the pitcher-friendly dimensions amplify his home struggles consistently.