Pedro Pagés has been a disaster for total bases overs, hitting just 20% over his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI. The Cardinals catcher is averaging 1.4 total bases against a 2.8 line, creating a massive 1.4 differential. This is a strong under play with multiple supporting factors.
Expert Analysis
Pedro Pagés's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of backup catching duties in St. Louis. His 1.4 average against a 2.8 line represents a staggering 50% shortfall, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his limited offensive role. The six-game under streak isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by inconsistent playing time and a Cardinals lineup that often bats him eighth or ninth. Pagés entered 2024 as organizational depth, and his .236 average with minimal extra-base power confirms he's overmatched at the major league level. The -1.4 differential is enormous for any prop bet, but particularly telling for a counting stat like total bases where even singles contribute. His 20% over rate would be concerning for any player, but it's devastating for someone whose line hasn't meaningfully adjusted downward. The Cardinals' offensive struggles compound Pagés's individual limitations, creating fewer RBI opportunities and forcing him into more defensive-minded at-bats. Books appear slow to recognize that Pagés isn't the prospect they once evaluated, creating persistent value on the under. The lack of any meaningful hot streak (longest over streak of just one game) suggests this isn't a temporary slump but rather his true talent level being exposed.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.4 average against a 2.8 line creates clear value, especially with six straight unders suggesting books haven't properly adjusted. Target games where Pagés bats low in the order or faces quality pitching. Main risk is variance in a small sample, but the underlying factors support continued underperformance until lines drop significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pedro Pagés's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Pedro Pagés went 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of overs. He's currently on a six-game under streak with a -61.8% ROI for over bettors during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pedro Pagés Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Pedro Pagés total bases props. His 1.4 average against a 2.8 line creates a massive 1.4 differential, and six straight unders suggest books haven't properly adjusted to his limited offensive output.
What's Pedro Pagés's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Pedro Pagés averaged 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games against a typical line of 2.8. This 1.4 differential represents a 50% shortfall from expectations, indicating significant value on the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pedro Pagés total bases unders when he's batting eighth or ninth in the Cardinals lineup, or when facing quality starting pitching. His backup role creates the most value in lower-leverage situations.