Pedro Pagés has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 18.8% of his Total Bases props with a brutal 3-13-0 record. His 1.19 average sits 1.6 bases below the typical 2.75 line, creating a massive -64.2% ROI for overs. This is a strong under play.
Expert Analysis
Pedro Pagés represents one of the most lopsided Total Bases trends in baseball, with his catastrophic 3-13-0 over/under record painting a clear picture of a player whose offensive output consistently falls short of market expectations. The Cardinals catcher's 1.19 average against a 2.75 line creates a staggering 1.6-base deficit that has persisted across 16 games from May through September. This isn't a small sample fluke — it's a systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who haven't adjusted quickly enough to Pagés's limited offensive profile. The current six-game under streak represents his longest run, suggesting the market is finally catching up, but the 55.1% ROI on unders indicates there's still value remaining. Pagés's role as a defensive-minded catcher naturally limits his offensive opportunities, and his swing profile appears poorly suited to generating the extra-base hits necessary to clear inflated total bases lines. The lack of any meaningful over streaks (longest is just one game) demonstrates remarkable consistency in his underperformance, making this one of the most reliable under trends available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pagés's 18.8% over rate and 1.6-base average deficit create exceptional under value that the market hasn't fully corrected. The six-game under streak shows no signs of regression, and his defensive-first profile suggests limited upside. Target this prop aggressively when lines remain at 2.5+ bases, as his ceiling rarely exceeds two total bases per game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pedro Pagés's Total Bases prop record all games?
Pedro Pagés has gone 3-13-0 on Total Bases overs across 16 games, hitting just 18.8% of his props. His average of 1.19 total bases per game sits well below the typical 2.75 line, creating massive under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pedro Pagés Total Bases all games?
Bet the UNDER on Pedro Pagés Total Bases props. His 3-13-0 record and 1.6-base deficit below lines create exceptional under value with 55.1% ROI. This is one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
What's Pedro Pagés's average Total Bases all games?
Pedro Pagés averages 1.19 total bases per game, sitting 1.6 bases below the typical 2.75 line. This massive deficit has created consistent under value across his 16-game sample from May through September.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pedro Pagés Total Bases unders when lines are 2.5+ bases, especially early in series when oddsmakers haven't adjusted. His defensive-first profile and lack of power make high lines particularly vulnerable.