Pedro Pagés presents one of the season's most lopsided home run props, hitting over just once in 16 games (6.2% rate) while averaging 0.06 homers against a 0.5 line. The Cardinals catcher's power deficit creates exceptional under value with +79.0% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Pedro Pagés's home run futility stems from his role as a defensive-first catcher with minimal offensive upside. His 0.06 average represents a massive 0.44 gap below the standard 0.5 line, indicating sportsbooks haven't properly adjusted to his power limitations. The 1-15-0 record isn't fluky—it reflects his contact-oriented approach and lack of raw power needed for consistent home run production. His current nine-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, as catchers like Pagés rarely develop sudden power surges mid-season. The -88.1% over ROI shows how consistently books have overpriced his home run potential, while the corresponding +79.0% under ROI represents genuine value. This isn't a player experiencing bad luck or facing tough pitcher matchups—this is a fundamental skills gap. Pagés's role as a backup catcher means limited at-bats, but when he does play, his swing mechanics and approach favor contact over power. The consistency of this trend across different opponents and situations suggests it's driven by player characteristics rather than external factors, making it highly likely to persist.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pedro Pagés's home run under represents premium value with his 6.2% over rate creating a massive edge against the 0.5 line. The 0.44 average deficit below the number isn't variance—it's a skill-based reality for a contact-oriented catcher. Bet this under in any situation, as his approach and power limitations make home runs extremely unlikely regardless of matchup.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pedro Pagés's Home Runs prop record all games?
Pedro Pagés's home run prop record stands at 1-15-0 over/under across 16 games, hitting the over just 6.2% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing at an exceptional 93.8% rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pedro Pagés Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Pedro Pagés's home runs with high confidence. His 6.2% over rate and 0.06 average create massive value against the 0.5 line. This isn't variance—it's a fundamental power deficit that makes unders extremely profitable.
What's Pedro Pagés's average Home Runs all games?
Pedro Pagés averages 0.06 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant 0.44 differential. This massive gap below the betting number reflects his contact-oriented approach and limited power production as a defensive catcher.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Pedro Pagés home run unders in any situation, as his 93.8% under rate shows consistency across all conditions. His role as a contact-first catcher makes the trend matchup-independent, providing reliable value regardless of opponent or venue.