Pedro Pagés presents one of the season's most reliable under opportunities, converting just 12.5% of his hits props with a 2-14-0 record. His 0.75 hits per game average falls nearly a full hit below the typical 1.69 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Pedro Pagés's hits prop represents a textbook case of market inefficiency meeting reality. His 0.75 hits per game average against a 1.69 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between expectations and performance. The 12.5% over rate across 16 games isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance that speaks to deeper issues with his offensive approach. Pagés has struggled to make consistent contact throughout 2024, with his longest over streak reaching just one game while enduring an eight-game under run. This suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his limited offensive ceiling. The -0.9 differential between his average and the line is massive in baseball terms, equivalent to nearly one full hit per game of built-in value. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern rather than indicating due regression. The 67% ROI on unders demonstrates sustainable profit potential, while the -76.1% over ROI shows how consistently this market has misfired. Without meaningful splits data to suggest situational variance, Pagés appears to be a player whose offensive limitations create predictable betting opportunities regardless of matchup context.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pedro Pagés's hits props offer exceptional value with a proven 87.5% success rate on unders. The nearly full-hit differential between his 0.75 average and typical lines creates sustainable edge. Target this prop in all situations given the lack of meaningful variance in his performance. Primary risk is potential line adjustment, though current market inefficiency suggests continued opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Pedro Pagés's Hits prop record all games?
Pedro Pagés holds a 2-14-0 record on his hits props across all games, converting just 12.5% of overs. His 0.75 hits per game average falls significantly below the typical 1.69 line, creating a -0.9 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Pedro Pagés Hits all games?
Bet the under on Pedro Pagés's hits props with high confidence. His 87.5% under success rate and 67% ROI on unders, combined with a massive -0.9 average-to-line differential, creates exceptional value that has proven sustainable across 16 games.
What's Pedro Pagés's average Hits all games?
Pedro Pagés averages 0.75 hits per game across all situations, nearly a full hit below the typical 1.69 line. This -0.9 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations, creating consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Pedro Pagés's hits under in all game situations given his consistent underperformance regardless of context. With no meaningful splits showing variance and an eight-game under streak, his offensive limitations appear universal rather than situational.