Patrick Bailey's home run production completely disappears in away games, hitting just 3 overs in 33 games (9.1% rate) with an average of 0.09 home runs versus the typical 0.5 line. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, currently riding a 16-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Bailey's road struggles stem from a perfect storm of factors that create an almost insurmountable barrier to home run production. As a catcher with limited pop (career .381 slugging percentage), Bailey relies heavily on favorable conditions and familiarity to generate power. Away from Oracle Park's dimensions and facing unfamiliar pitching staffs, his already modest power evaporates entirely. The 0.09 average represents less than one home run every eleven games, while books consistently set his line at 0.5, creating massive value on the under. The 16-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the natural result of a contact-first catcher facing the inherent disadvantages of road baseball. Bailey's approach focuses on getting on base and managing the running game rather than driving balls out of the park. Road ballparks often feature different wind patterns, lighting, and backgrounds that can disrupt timing for hitters who aren't elite power threats. The -82.6% over ROI tells the complete story—this isn't variance, it's a fundamental mismatch between Bailey's skill set and the challenges of road power production. The persistence of this trend across different seasons and ballparks suggests structural rather than situational factors are at play.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Bailey's 9.1% over rate in away games represents one of baseball's most reliable trends, driven by his contact-first approach and the inherent challenges road environments pose to marginal power hitters. Target this prop whenever the line sits at 0.5, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality arms. The main risk is a random cheapie or inside-the-parker, but the 73.5% under ROI speaks to the exceptional value here.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Patrick Bailey's Home Runs prop record away games?
Patrick Bailey has gone 3-30-0 on home run overs in away games, hitting just 9.1% of his overs with an average of 0.09 home runs per game. He's currently on a 16-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Patrick Bailey Home Runs away games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Bailey's 9.1% over rate and 73.5% under ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable trends, especially when the line sits at 0.5.
What's Patrick Bailey's average Home Runs away games?
Bailey averages 0.09 home runs in away games, creating a massive -0.4 differential versus the typical 0.5 line. This means he hits one home run roughly every eleven road games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bailey home run unders in any away game when the line is 0.5, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality starters who limit hard contact and keep balls in the yard.