Ozzie Albies has been a home run under machine in 2024, hitting just 2 home runs across 14 games for a brutal 14.3% over rate. With an average of 0.14 homers per game against the standard 0.5 line, the under has delivered consistent profits with +63.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Ozzie Albies's home run drought represents one of the season's most reliable under trends, but the underlying factors suggest this isn't sustainable long-term. Albies averaged 23 home runs over the previous three seasons, making his 0.14 per-game rate a massive statistical outlier. The 7-game under streak that dominated his sample indicates either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply brutal variance catching up to a historically solid power hitter. His career 15.2% home run rate suggests the talent remains, but 2024 saw him struggle with launch angle and exit velocity consistency. The -0.4 differential between his actual output and the betting line created enormous value on unders, but books have likely adjusted. The sample size of 14 games, while showing clear patterns, isn't large enough to declare this a permanent shift in Albies's profile. His second-half struggles coincided with various minor injuries that may have sapped his power stroke. The persistence of this trend through multiple months suggests legitimate underlying issues rather than short-term variance, but regression toward career norms remains the most likely outcome moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. While Albies's 2024 home run struggles created massive under value, this trend appears unsustainable given his career power profile. The 14.3% over rate reflects legitimate issues but represents an overcorrection. Target unders when lines remain at 0.5, but expect regression as health and mechanics improve. The main risk is catching the inevitable positive regression when his power returns to career norms.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ozzie Albies's Home Runs prop record all games?
Ozzie Albies went 2-12 on home run overs in 2024, hitting just 14.3% of his over bets across 14 games. He managed only 2 total home runs with an average of 0.14 per game, creating a -0.4 differential against the standard 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ozzie Albies Home Runs all games?
Lean under on Ozzie Albies home run props, but with caution. His 14.3% over rate and +63.6% under ROI created excellent value in 2024, but this represents an extreme outlier compared to his career power numbers that suggests inevitable regression.
What's Ozzie Albies's average Home Runs all games?
Ozzie Albies averaged just 0.14 home runs per game in 2024, a massive 0.4 differential below the typical 0.5 betting line. This represents a dramatic decline from his career norms and created significant under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Albies home run unders when lines remain at 0.5, particularly early in series or after extended homerless streaks. Avoid betting during potential positive regression periods or when he shows improved exit velocity metrics in recent games.