Nolan Schanuel's total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 1 over in 10 games (10% rate) while averaging 1.2 total bases against a 3.0 line. This represents a massive -1.8 differential with 71.8% ROI on unders. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Schanuel's total bases collapse appears rooted in fundamental offensive struggles rather than temporary variance. Averaging 1.2 total bases against a 3.0 line suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his declining form or oddsmakers are banking on positive regression that hasn't materialized. The five-game under streak indicates persistent issues—likely a combination of reduced power output, lower contact quality, and potentially unfavorable matchups. What's particularly striking is the severity of the underperformance; a -1.8 differential over 10 games represents systematic failure to reach even modest expectations. The 10% over rate is extreme enough to suggest this isn't random fluctuation but reflects genuine skill or approach changes. However, regression concerns are valid—no player maintains such poor production indefinitely, and books rarely leave lines this far off true value for extended periods. The risk lies in timing the inevitable correction, as even one multi-hit game with extra-base hits could quickly shift the narrative and tighten future lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The data strongly supports continued under betting, but the extreme nature of Schanuel's struggles raises regression red flags. Target unders when the line remains at 2.5-3.0, particularly against quality pitching where his contact issues are magnified. Main risk is positive regression finally hitting, as this level of underperformance is historically unsustainable for everyday players.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Schanuel's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Schanuel went 1-9 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of over bets. He averaged only 1.2 total bases against a typical 3.0 line, creating a massive -1.8 per-game differential that devastated over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Schanuel Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Schanuel's total bases props. The data overwhelmingly supports unders with 71.8% ROI and only one over in 10 games. However, use medium confidence due to potential positive regression from such extreme underperformance levels.
What's Nolan Schanuel's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Schanuel averaged just 1.2 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the typical 3.0 line. This -1.8 differential represents severe underperformance, with his actual production falling 60% below market expectations on average per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schanuel total bases unders when lines stay at 2.5-3.0, especially against strong pitching staffs. His contact issues appear magnified in tougher matchups. Avoid betting after any multi-hit performance that might trigger line adjustments or positive regression.