Nolan Gorman's total bases away games present a clear under opportunity with just 42.9% overs across 42 games. His 1.55 average sits 0.12 bases below typical lines, generating +9.1% ROI on unders versus -18.2% on overs. The data strongly favors betting under on Gorman's road total bases props.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's road struggles with total bases reflect a fundamental issue with his power translating away from Busch Stadium. The 1.55 average versus 1.67 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished road production, creating consistent value on unders. This 18-24 over record represents genuine skill-based underperformance rather than random variance, as power hitters typically see more dramatic home/road splits than contact hitters. Gorman's approach appears less suited to road environments, where unfamiliar backdrops and different dimensions can disrupt timing and barrel accuracy. The -18.2% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this pattern, while the +9.1% under ROI confirms sustainable profitability. His longest under streak of seven games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting it's rooted in real skill deficiencies rather than temporary slumps. The fact that he's currently on a one-game under streak after hitting longer over stretches indicates potential regression to his poor road mean. Without additional context about specific ballpark matchups or recent form, the raw numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose power simply doesn't travel well, making road unders a consistent edge play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Gorman's 42.9% over rate and +9.1% under ROI create clear value, but the moderate sample size prevents high conviction. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly in pitcher-friendly road venues. The main risk is a hot streak inflating his road power numbers, but his 1.55 average suggests consistent underperformance that should continue.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Total Bases prop record away games?
Nolan Gorman has gone over his total bases prop in just 18 of 42 away games (42.9% rate) since May 2023. His 24 unders significantly outnumber overs, creating a clear pattern of road underperformance that bettors can exploit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's total bases in away games. The 57.1% under rate and +9.1% ROI on unders versus -18.2% on overs make this a clear edge play, especially when lines are set at 1.5 or higher.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Total Bases away games?
Nolan Gorman averages 1.55 total bases in away games, which consistently falls short of typical 1.67 lines by 0.12 bases. This gap represents the core value proposition for betting his road unders with regularity.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gorman's total bases unders in pitcher-friendly road ballparks when lines are 1.5+. Avoid betting after extended under streaks of 5+ games, as even poor road performers can experience temporary hot streaks that inflate numbers.