Nolan Gorman's total bases props show a clear under bias with just 38.4% overs across 73 games. His 1.49 average sits 0.13 bases below typical lines, creating a -26.8% ROI on overs versus +17.7% on unders. The under side offers consistent value.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's total bases production reveals a systematic underperformance against market expectations that extends beyond typical variance. His 1.49 average across 73 games consistently falls short of the 1.62 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited extra-base power profile. The Cardinals second baseman's approach generates more singles than doubles or home runs, creating a ceiling effect that caps his total bases upside. The 28-45 over-under record represents a significant sample size where the market has persistently overvalued his power output. His current four-game under streak aligns with a longer nine-game under run, indicating this isn't random fluctuation but reflects his true skill level. The -0.13 differential between his average and typical lines represents real betting value, as books appear slow to adjust to his contact-over-power hitting style. Without meaningful split data suggesting situational advantages for overs, the underlying metrics point to continued under performance. The 17.7% ROI on unders across this extended sample provides strong evidence that Gorman's total bases props are consistently mispriced toward the over.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Nolan Gorman's 38.4% over rate and consistent underperformance against lines creates legitimate under value. The 17.7% under ROI across 73 games suggests sustainable edge rather than short-term variance. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, avoiding spots where books might have adjusted downward. Main risk is a power surge that could temporarily inflate his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Total Bases prop record all games?
Nolan Gorman's total bases record in all games shows 28 overs and 45 unders across 73 games, producing a 38.4% over rate. This represents significant underperformance against market expectations with unders hitting 61.6% of the time.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's total bases props. His 38.4% over rate and +17.7% under ROI across 73 games creates consistent value. Target unders when lines are 1.5 or higher for maximum edge.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Total Bases all games?
Nolan Gorman averages 1.49 total bases per game across all contests, running 0.13 bases below the typical 1.62 line. This differential represents the core value proposition for under bets on his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nolan Gorman total bases unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, particularly during his current under streak. Avoid betting when books adjust lines downward below 1.5, as this reduces the edge.