Nolan Gorman's home run prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 2-8-0 record. The Cardinals slugger is averaging 0.2 homers per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.3 differential that's generated +52.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Gorman's power outage represents more than just a cold streak — it's a fundamental shift in his offensive profile during this stretch. The 0.2 home runs per game average against 0.5 lines reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power output, creating consistent value on unders. This isn't variance; it's a pattern rooted in mechanical issues or approach changes that have neutered his natural pop. The four-game under streak currently active suggests whatever's ailing Gorman's power stroke has staying power. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of multi-homer games in this sample, indicating he's not just missing marginally but struggling to generate the type of hard contact that leads to home runs. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose power numbers haven't caught up to his current reality. While regression is always possible with power hitters, Gorman's underlying metrics during this stretch likely support the home run drought rather than suggest imminent explosion.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gorman's power has completely evaporated during this 10-game stretch, and books haven't adjusted lines accordingly. The 0.3-homer gap between his average and typical lines creates automatic value on unders. Target this prop when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, as his current form suggests he's more likely to go deep once every five games than every other game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Gorman has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. He's averaging 0.2 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a significant gap between expectation and production during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Gorman's power has completely disappeared, averaging 0.2 homers per game against 0.5 lines. The four-game under streak and +52.7% ROI on unders make this one of the strongest prop trends available.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Gorman is averaging just 0.2 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, a full 0.3 homers below the standard 0.5 line. This massive differential represents the gap between his current power output and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gorman home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, which creates automatic value given his 0.2 average. Avoid when lines drop to 0.5- or lower, as books may finally be adjusting to his power outage.