Nolan Gorman's home run prop at Busch Stadium presents a compelling under opportunity with a 22.6% over rate across 31 games. His 0.26 average sits 0.3 homers below typical lines, generating a 47.8% ROI on unders. The current 10-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's home run struggles at Busch Stadium reflect a perfect storm of factors working against power production. The 0.26 home average versus 0.56 typical line creates a massive 0.3 differential that books haven't adequately adjusted for, suggesting they're overvaluing his road power numbers or career projections. Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions, particularly the deep left-center gap where Gorman typically pulls his power, suppress home run rates significantly. The 10-game under streak isn't just variance—it represents a fundamental mismatch between his swing plane and home ballpark characteristics. With only 7 overs in 31 home games, this trend shows remarkable persistence across different seasons and lineup positions. The -56.9% ROI on overs indicates books are consistently setting lines too high, likely influenced by his occasional road power surges. Gorman's pull-heavy approach works against him at home, where Busch Stadium's spacious left field turns would-be homers into warning track outs. Unless he dramatically alters his swing mechanics or the Cardinals move him to a more favorable spot in the order for better pitch selection, this home park disadvantage should persist.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 0.3 differential between Gorman's home average and typical lines represents a significant market inefficiency that shows no signs of correction. Busch Stadium's dimensions fundamentally work against his pull-heavy power approach, creating a sustainable edge. The 10-game under streak reinforces the underlying park factors rather than indicating due regression. Target unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Home Runs prop record home games?
Nolan Gorman's home run prop record in home games stands at 7-24-0 over/under, hitting just 22.6% of overs. His 0.26 home run average falls well short of typical 0.56 lines, creating a significant 0.3 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's home run props at Busch Stadium with high confidence. The 47.8% ROI on unders and persistent 0.3 differential below typical lines creates a sustainable edge that books haven't corrected.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Home Runs home games?
Nolan Gorman averages 0.26 home runs per game at Busch Stadium, sitting 0.3 below the typical 0.56 line. This substantial gap represents one of the largest home/away power differentials in recent data.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Nolan Gorman home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, particularly during day games when Busch Stadium's dimensions play even larger. The current 10-game under streak makes each opportunity more valuable.