Nolan Gorman's home run prop in away games presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting just 19.0% overs across 42 games with a brutal -0.3 differential from the line. The Cardinals second baseman averages only 0.21 home runs per away game against a typical 0.52 line, creating exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's road power struggles represent a textbook case of environmental impact on offensive production. His 0.21 home run average in away games sits dramatically below the 0.52 line that oddsmakers consistently set, suggesting either market inefficiency or persistent overvaluation of his power potential. The 19.0% over rate across 42 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the staggering 17-game under streak demonstrates the consistency of this trend. Road environments typically suppress power numbers due to unfamiliar ballparks, different wind patterns, and reduced comfort levels, factors that appear to significantly impact Gorman's swing mechanics and timing. The -63.6% ROI on overs tells the complete story of market mispricing, while under bettors have enjoyed a robust +54.5% return. This isn't random variance – it's a systematic pattern rooted in Gorman's specific skill set translating poorly to road conditions. The Cardinals' second baseman clearly struggles with the adjustment period that comes with different ballpark dimensions and pitcher familiarity away from Busch Stadium. With only 8 overs in 42 attempts, this trend shows remarkable persistence that suggests underlying mechanical or psychological factors rather than temporary slump.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Nolan Gorman's road home run props offer exceptional value with an 81% win rate and +54.5% ROI over 42 games. The 0.3-run differential between his actual production and the line represents significant market inefficiency. Target this prop when Gorman plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks or faces quality starting pitching, as these conditions compound his existing road struggles and make the under even more reliable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Home Runs prop record away games?
Nolan Gorman's home run prop record in away games stands at 8-34-0, hitting the over just 19.0% of the time across 42 games. This represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props with an 81% under win rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Nolan Gorman's home run props in away games with high confidence. The 81% under win rate and +54.5% ROI over 42 games make this one of the most reliable prop bets available in baseball markets.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Home Runs away games?
Nolan Gorman averages 0.21 home runs per away game, which sits 0.3 runs below the typical 0.52 line set by sportsbooks. This significant differential creates consistent value on under bets in road environments.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gorman's home run under props when he plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks or faces quality starting pitching on the road. These conditions compound his existing away struggles and provide the highest-confidence betting opportunities.