Nolan Gorman's home run props present one of the sharpest under opportunities in baseball, hitting just 20.5% of overs across 73 games with a brutal -0.3 differential versus the line. The Cardinals second baseman averages 0.23 home runs against a typical 0.54 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Gorman's home run struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and actual production. The 0.23 average against a 0.54 line represents a massive 57% gap that sportsbooks have been slow to correct. This isn't simply bad luck—Gorman's 20.5% over rate across 73 games suggests a player whose power output is systematically overvalued. The Cardinals' offensive environment and Gorman's approach at the plate create conditions where he consistently falls short of inflated lines. His current four-game under streak extends a pattern of sustained underperformance, with his longest under streak reaching 11 games compared to just three consecutive overs. The -60.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that refuses to adjust properly to Gorman's actual capabilities. While regression toward the mean is always possible, the sample size here is substantial enough to suggest this represents true skill level rather than variance. The 51.7% ROI on unders demonstrates how profitable this edge has been for sharp bettors who recognize the disconnect between perception and reality in Gorman's power numbers.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gorman's home run props offer exceptional value with a 20.5% over rate and massive -0.3 differential creating a sustainable edge. The market consistently overrates his power potential, making unders profitable in virtually any game situation. Primary risk is a sudden offensive explosion, but the 73-game sample suggests this is his true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Home Runs prop record all games?
Gorman's home run props show a 15-58-0 record (20.5% overs) across 73 games from May 2023 to August 2024, with unders producing a 51.7% ROI compared to -60.8% on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Home Runs all games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Gorman's 0.23 average versus 0.54 typical line creates a -0.3 differential that has produced consistent profits, hitting under in nearly 80% of games.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Home Runs all games?
Gorman averages 0.23 home runs per game compared to his typical 0.54 line, creating a massive -0.3 differential that represents a 57% gap between expectation and actual production.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Gorman home run unders in any situation given the consistent edge. The 73-game sample shows profitability regardless of opponent or venue, with the market failing to adjust properly to his power limitations.