Nolan Gorman's hits prop at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 71% of games with a devastating 14-game under streak still active. His 0.65 average sits well below the typical 1.02 line, creating consistent value on unders with exceptional +35.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Nolan Gorman's home hitting struggles represent a textbook case of line inefficiency, with books consistently overvaluing his hit production at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals second baseman has managed just 20 hits across 31 home games, a .645 rate that falls dramatically short of his projected 1.02 line. This isn't variance—it's a systematic pattern rooted in Gorman's swing-heavy approach that plays poorly in his home environment. The 14-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting fundamental issues with his timing or approach against familiar pitching staffs. His power-over-contact profile, which can generate occasional home runs, doesn't translate to reliable hit accumulation. The -44.6% ROI on overs tells the complete story—betting Gorman overs at home has been financial suicide. While regression seems inevitable eventually, the sample size of 31 games provides substantial confidence that this isn't random fluctuation. The absence of even moderate over streaks (longest is just 2 games) indicates books haven't properly adjusted their lines to reflect Gorman's home park struggles. This creates a rare situation where the under offers both statistical backing and strong recent momentum.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Nolan Gorman's home hits prop represents premium betting value with 71% historical success and an active 14-game under streak. The 0.37-hit gap between his average and typical lines creates consistent profit opportunities. Target games where the line sits at 1.0 or higher for maximum edge. Primary risk is eventual regression, but the pattern shows remarkable persistence across a meaningful sample size.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nolan Gorman's Hits prop record home games?
Nolan Gorman's hits prop record in home games stands at 9-22-0 over/under, hitting the over just 29% of the time. He's currently riding a 14-game under streak with an average of 0.65 hits per home game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nolan Gorman Hits home games?
Bet under on Nolan Gorman's hits props at home games. The 71% under rate, active 14-game streak, and +35.5% ROI provide compelling evidence. Target lines at 1.0 or higher for maximum value and consistent profits.
What's Nolan Gorman's average Hits home games?
Nolan Gorman averages 0.65 hits per home game, significantly below the typical 1.02 line offered by sportsbooks. This 0.37-hit differential creates consistent value opportunities when betting the under on his home props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Nolan Gorman hits unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher in home games. The 14-game active streak and 71% historical success rate provide maximum confidence in familiar Busch Stadium conditions.