Nico Hoerner's home Total Bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 25.0% overs across 72 games. His 1.25 average falls a full base below typical 2.24 lines, generating +43.2% ROI on unders. This represents a clear systematic edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Hoerner's home Total Bases struggles stem from his contact-heavy approach that doesn't translate to power at Wrigley Field. His 1.25 home average versus 2.24 typical lines reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality. The 25.0% over rate across 72 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a sustained pattern driven by Hoerner's spray-hitting style that prioritizes contact over power. Wrigley's dimensions and wind patterns can suppress offensive output, particularly for gap hitters like Hoerner who rely on doubles rather than home runs for extra bases. The current five-game under streak follows a season-long pattern, with his longest under streak reaching 16 games. This consistency suggests the market continues overvaluing his home power potential. The -52.3% ROI on overs demonstrates how severely books have mispriced this prop, while the +43.2% under ROI shows sustainable profit potential. Hoerner's approach—high contact, low power—creates predictable outcomes that books haven't adequately adjusted for in home settings.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 25.0% over rate and 1.25 average create clear value when lines sit around 2.0+ total bases. Target this prop when Hoerner faces quality pitching or in day games where Wrigley's conditions typically favor pitchers. Main risk is a hot streak where his doubles come in bunches, but his contact-first approach limits explosive upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nico Hoerner's Total Bases prop record home games?
Hoerner's home Total Bases record shows 18 overs and 54 unders across 72 games, creating a 25.0% over rate. This translates to +43.2% ROI on under bets and -52.3% ROI on overs, indicating severe market mispricing.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nico Hoerner Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Hoerner's Total Bases at home. His 1.25 average falls nearly a full base below typical lines, with only 25% of games going over. The +43.2% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability in this spot.
What's Nico Hoerner's average Total Bases home games?
Hoerner averages 1.25 total bases in home games compared to typical lines around 2.24. This massive -1.0 differential explains why unders hit 75% of the time, creating one of the most reliable prop edges available.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hoerner Total Bases unders in day games at Wrigley against quality pitching. His contact-first approach struggles most in pitcher-friendly conditions, and the home ballpark dimensions limit his gap power that drives extra bases.