Nick Pivetta has hit the under on his strikeout props at a staggering 69.2% rate, going 4-9-0 against the over/under with a brutal -41.3% ROI on overs. Currently riding a six-game under streak, this presents a compelling fade-the-over opportunity with strong statistical backing.
Expert Analysis
Pivetta's strikeout prop struggles stem from consistently inflated lines that fail to account for his diminished swing-and-miss stuff. Averaging just 6.0 strikeouts against a 6.42 line creates a meaningful -0.4 differential that compounds over time. The Red Sox starter's current six-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects a pitcher whose arsenal has lost some bite, particularly his four-seam fastball velocity and slider effectiveness. Books appear slow to adjust, maintaining optimistic lines based on Pivetta's past strikeout rates rather than his current reality. The 30.8% over rate across 13 games represents a large enough sample to identify genuine line value, especially when paired with the +32.2% ROI on unders. Most concerning for over bettors is Pivetta's inability to string together consecutive overs, maxing out at just two in a row while demonstrating clear under clustering. His pitch efficiency has declined, leading to earlier exits that cap his strikeout ceiling regardless of stuff quality on any given day.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 69.2% under rate and +32.2% ROI create clear line value, though the limited 13-game sample prevents high conviction. Target unders when Pivetta faces patient lineups or in potential bullpen games where his pitch count might be managed aggressively. Primary risk is positive regression, but the underlying skills decline suggests this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 6.5 | 2.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-09 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Pivetta's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Pivetta's strikeout props show a 4-9-0 over/under record across 13 games, hitting the under 69.2% of the time. He's averaging 6.0 strikeouts against a typical 6.42 line, creating a consistent -0.4 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Pivetta Strikeouts all games?
Bet under on Pivetta's strikeout props. The 69.2% under rate and +32.2% ROI provide clear statistical edges, supported by his current six-game under streak. His declining stuff makes inflated lines vulnerable to consistent under results.
What's Nick Pivetta's average Strikeouts all games?
Pivetta averages 6.0 strikeouts per game against a typical 6.42 line, creating a -0.4 differential. This gap between performance and expectations drives the strong under trend, as books consistently price his props too high.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pivetta strikeout unders against patient lineups or when Boston might limit his pitch count. Avoid betting when he faces free-swinging teams or in must-win spots where he's likely to be extended deeper into games.