Nick Lodolo's strikeout props have been a consistent under play across his last 10 starts, hitting the over just 40% of the time with a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 6.2 strikeouts against a 6.1 line, the minimal 0.1 differential masks poor over performance and suggests books are pricing him accurately.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Lodolo's strikeout ceiling being lower than the betting market expects. While his 6.2 average suggests he's meeting expectations, the 4-6 over/under record reveals consistent disappointments when bettors need him most. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates the market is systematically overvaluing his strikeout upside, likely influenced by his stuff grades rather than actual results. What's particularly telling is the longest under streak reaching four games compared to just two consecutive overs, suggesting when Lodolo struggles with strikeouts, he tends to stay in that pattern. The tight 0.1 differential between his average and the typical line shows oddsmakers aren't wildly off, but the poor over rate indicates they're missing something about his consistency issues. This could stem from command problems, pitch mix adjustments, or simply variance in a smaller sample. However, the 14.6% ROI on unders provides a meaningful edge for contrarian bettors willing to fade the strikeout upside that casual money typically chases with promising young pitchers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate combined with negative ROI on overs creates a systematic edge for under bettors. Lodolo's track record suggests books are pricing his strikeout ceiling too optimistically, making unders the preferred play. The main risk is a dominant outing breaking the pattern, but the consistent underperformance and positive under ROI make this a defensible contrarian position.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-11 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 11.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Lodolo's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Lodolo has gone 4-6 over/under on strikeout props in his last 10 starts, hitting the over just 40% of the time. Over bettors have lost money with a -23.6% ROI while under backers profit at +14.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Lodolo Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet the under. The 40% over rate and negative ROI for over bettors creates a clear edge for under plays. His longest under streak of four games shows he can get stuck in low-strikeout patterns consistently.
What's Nick Lodolo's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lodolo averages 6.2 strikeouts over his last 10 games against a typical line of 6.1, creating just a 0.1 positive differential. Despite barely exceeding the line on average, he's failed to hit overs 60% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when books set his line at 6+ strikeouts, as the market consistently overvalues his upside. Avoid overs entirely given the poor track record and negative ROI pattern over this sample period.