Nick Gonzales has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going under in 90% of contests with a catastrophic 1-9-0 record. His 2.0 average sits 1.6 bases below typical lines, creating an 80.9% ROI bloodbath for over bettors. This presents a clear under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story of offensive regression for Nick Gonzales, whose total bases production has cratered over this 10-game sample. Averaging just 2.0 total bases against lines typically set around 3.6 represents a massive 44.4% shortfall that extends beyond normal variance. The 8-game under streak within this span suggests systematic issues rather than random cold shooting. For a second baseman in his early MLB development, this pattern likely reflects a combination of opposing pitchers adjusting to his approach and Gonzales struggling with pitch recognition or timing at the plate. The 71.8% ROI for under bettors demonstrates the market has been slow to adjust to his diminished power output. While rookie growing pains are normal, the consistency of this underperformance across different matchups indicates the trend has staying power. The complete absence of multi-hit power games during this stretch suggests Gonzales is making weaker contact and failing to drive balls with authority. This isn't just a cold streak—it's a fundamental struggle that creates exploitable betting value on the under side of his total bases props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Gonzales's 90% under rate over 10 games with a -1.6 average differential creates exceptional value on the under side. The 8-game under streak demonstrates consistent offensive struggles that the betting market hasn't fully adjusted to yet. Target this prop when lines remain around 3.5+ total bases, as his current 2.0 average provides substantial cushion. The main risk is positive regression, but his contact quality issues suggest this trend has more runway.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Nick Gonzales's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Gonzales has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting the under in 90% of contests. His average of 2.0 total bases sits 1.6 bases below typical betting lines around 3.6.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Nick Gonzales Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Gonzales's 90% under rate and -1.6 differential from betting lines creates exceptional value. His 8-game under streak shows systematic offensive struggles that provide a clear betting edge.
What's Nick Gonzales's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Gonzales is averaging just 2.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical betting lines around 3.6. This -1.6 differential represents a 44.4% shortfall from market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gonzales total bases unders when lines are set at 3.5 or higher. His current struggles provide maximum value against inflated numbers, especially in games where he faces quality pitching.