Mookie Betts has been a total bases under machine, going 1-9 over his last 10 games with a devastating -80.9% ROI on overs. Averaging just 1.0 total bases against a 3.3 line creates a massive -2.3 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Betts struggling to generate extra-base production during this 10-game stretch. A 1.0 total bases average suggests he's been limited primarily to singles when he does reach base, with minimal doubles, triples, or home runs. The 90% under rate isn't just bad luck—it indicates a fundamental shift in his approach or circumstances that has neutered his power production. The current three-game under streak, following a six-game under run earlier in the sample, shows this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. What's particularly telling is how far below the betting market's expectations Betts has fallen. A -2.3 differential between performance and line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to this downturn, creating continued value on unders. The 71.8% ROI on under bets demonstrates the profitability of fading Betts during this cold stretch. However, regression remains a constant threat with a player of Betts' caliber, and any sign of renewed power could quickly flip this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate and massive -2.3 differential create clear value, but Betts' elite track record demands respect for potential regression. Target unders when the line sits at 3.0 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust to his current power outage. The main risk is Betts breaking out of this slump with vintage extra-base production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mookie Betts's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Mookie Betts has gone 1-9 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends for any elite player this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mookie Betts Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Mookie Betts total bases props. The 90% under rate and -2.3 differential between his 1.0 average and typical 3.3 line creates significant value, especially when lines remain elevated.
What's Mookie Betts's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Mookie Betts is averaging 1.0 total bases over his last 10 games compared to his typical 3.3 line. This -2.3 differential indicates he's been limited mostly to singles with minimal extra-base production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mookie Betts total bases unders when the line is 3.0 or higher, as the market appears slow to adjust to his current slump. Avoid betting when lines drop below 2.5, suggesting books have caught up.