Mookie Betts' home total bases prop shows clear under value at just 44.0% overs (11-14 record) with books consistently overpricing the line. His 2.48 average sits only 0.3 above the typical 2.14 line, creating sustainable under opportunities with positive 6.9% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic mispricing in Mookie Betts' home total bases market, where oddsmakers appear to overvalue his Dodger Stadium production. Betts averages 2.48 total bases at home against a 2.14 line, but this modest 0.3 differential masks the true betting edge. The 44.0% over rate indicates books are inflating lines based on Betts' reputation rather than his actual home performance patterns. His current four-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, suggesting this isn't random variance but a persistent market inefficiency. The negative 16.0% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently overpriced these lines have been, while under bettors have profited with 6.9% returns. Dodger Stadium's dimensions and Betts' approach may contribute to more consistent contact over explosive power numbers at home. The 25-game sample provides statistical significance, and without major changes to his role or the ballpark, this trend appears sustainable. Books likely factor in Betts' elite reputation and the Dodgers' offensive environment, but the actual results show more modest production than the lines suggest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.9% under ROI combined with a clear 44.0% over rate creates a sustainable edge against overpriced lines. Target spots where the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Betts' 2.48 home average suggests value. Main risk is a hot streak breaking the current pattern, but the 25-game sample indicates this is more than variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mookie Betts's Total Bases prop record home games?
Mookie Betts has gone over his total bases prop in just 11 of 25 home games (44.0%) with a 11-14-0 record. This 56.0% under rate shows consistent value on the under side of his home props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mookie Betts Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Mookie Betts' total bases at home. The 6.9% under ROI and 44.0% over rate indicate books consistently overprice these lines, creating sustainable value for under bettors in this market.
What's Mookie Betts's average Total Bases home games?
Mookie Betts averages 2.48 total bases in home games compared to the typical 2.14 line. This modest 0.3 differential above the line creates under value, as the small edge doesn't justify the over frequency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mookie Betts total bases unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher at home. His 2.48 average provides the best value against inflated numbers, especially during his documented streaky under patterns.