Mookie Betts has been a consistent home run under performer at Dodger Stadium, hitting just 26.9% of overs across 26 games with a brutal -0.2 differential against the standard 0.5 line. The under has delivered a 39.5% ROI while backing overs has cost bettors nearly half their investment.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Mookie Betts struggling to clear home run props at Dodger Stadium, where his 0.31 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line. This isn't a small sample fluke — 26 games provides meaningful data, and the consistency is striking with just seven overs in that span. Dodger Stadium's dimensions work against power hitters despite its reputation, particularly down the foul lines where Betts generates much of his pull-side power. The current six-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than representing an anomaly. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Betts's approach at home, where he's shown more patience and contact-oriented hitting compared to his road aggression. The -48.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to his home park performance. While Betts remains an elite player capable of explosive games, the data suggests his home run production at Dodger Stadium consistently falls short of betting expectations. The persistence of this trend across different months and situations indicates structural factors rather than temporary variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mookie Betts's home run props at Dodger Stadium represent solid under value, supported by 26 games of consistent data showing 73.1% under results. The -0.2 average differential provides a meaningful edge, though his elite talent prevents this from being a high-confidence slam dunk. Target this spot when the line sits at 0.5, avoiding plus-money overs that might indicate lineup or park factors favoring power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mookie Betts's Home Runs prop record home games?
Mookie Betts has gone 7-19-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 26.9% of his overs with an average of 0.31 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mookie Betts Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Mookie Betts home run props at Dodger Stadium. The data shows 73.1% under results with a 39.5% ROI, while overs have lost bettors 48.6% of their investment consistently.
What's Mookie Betts's average Home Runs home games?
Mookie Betts averages 0.31 home runs per game at Dodger Stadium, sitting 0.2 below the standard 0.5 line. This differential has been remarkably consistent across 26 games of data.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mookie Betts home run unders when the line is set at 0.5 at Dodger Stadium. Avoid plus-money over situations that might indicate favorable lineup positioning or weather conditions.