Mike Yastrzemski's home run props present one of the sharpest under edges in baseball, with just 12 overs in 81 games (14.8% rate) and a massive -0.36 differential between his 0.15 average and typical 0.51 line. The under delivers exceptional +62.6% ROI with remarkable consistency.
Expert Analysis
Yastrzemski's power production has cratered in 2024, creating a systematic mispricing in the home run market. His 0.15 homers per game average sits dramatically below the standard 0.51 line, indicating oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power stroke. The 14.8% over rate represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, with Yastrzemski managing just 12 home runs across 81 games. His longest over streak reached only 2 games, while he endured a brutal 14-game homerless stretch, highlighting the feast-or-famine nature that heavily favors the under. The +62.6% under ROI demonstrates market inefficiency, as books appear anchored to Yastrzemski's previous power numbers rather than his current reality. At 33 years old, this represents likely genuine decline rather than temporary slump, making the trend sustainable. The three-game under streak entering suggests continued struggles, and without platoon advantages or favorable matchup data to suggest improvement, the fundamental power deficit remains the driving factor. Yastrzemski's transformation from reliable power threat to singles hitter creates a persistent edge for under bettors willing to fade public perception.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Yastrzemski's power collapse creates a systematic market inefficiency that shows no signs of regression. The 14.8% over rate and -0.36 average differential represent genuine skill decline, not variance. Target this under in all situations, especially when lines remain at 0.5+. The primary risk is an occasional hot streak, but his 14-game homerless stretch demonstrates the floor is extremely low.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Yastrzemski's Home Runs prop record all games?
Yastrzemski went 12-69-0 on home run overs in 2024, hitting just 14.8% of overs across 81 games. He averaged 0.15 home runs per game against a typical 0.51 line, creating a -0.36 differential that heavily favored under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Yastrzemski Home Runs all games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Yastrzemski's power has completely disappeared, with just 12 home runs in 81 games and a +62.6% under ROI. The 14.8% over rate represents genuine decline, not variance, making this one of baseball's sharpest under edges.
What's Mike Yastrzemski's average Home Runs all games?
Yastrzemski averaged 0.15 home runs per game in 2024, dramatically below the standard 0.51 line. This -0.36 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectations, creating exceptional value on the under consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Yastrzemski home run unders in all situations, as his power decline appears permanent rather than situational. The trend shows no meaningful splits, suggesting consistent underperformance regardless of matchup, making every opportunity valuable for under bettors.