Mike Yastrzemski's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 36.6% overs across 82 games in 2024. His 0.79 average sits a massive 0.5 hits below the typical 1.28 line, generating +21.1% ROI on unders while overs hemorrhage at -30.2%.
Expert Analysis
Yastrzemski's hitting struggles in 2024 created one of the season's most reliable under trends, with books consistently overvaluing his hit production. The veteran outfielder's 0.79 hits per game average represents a significant decline from his career norms, yet oddsmakers maintained lines around 1.28 hits throughout the season. This disconnect stems from Yastrzemski's reputation and past performance overshadowing his current reality. The 36.6% over rate indicates this wasn't random variance but a sustained pattern of underperformance relative to expectations. What makes this trend particularly valuable is its consistency—even during his longest over streak of 8 games, the overall mathematics remained heavily skewed toward unders. The -0.5 differential between his average and the line is substantial in hits betting, where margins are typically much tighter. This suggests books were slow to adjust to Yastrzemski's diminished offensive output, creating persistent value on the under. The +21.1% ROI on unders across 82 games represents a significant sample size that validates the edge. With both his longest over and under streaks reaching 8 games, the trend showed balance within its overall bearish trajectory, making it less susceptible to dramatic swings that could wipe out profits.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Yastrzemski's massive -0.5 differential and 63.4% under rate across 82 games represents one of 2024's most reliable props. The +21.1% under ROI validates this edge, while the -30.2% over ROI shows the market's persistent mispricing. Target this when books set lines at 1.5 hits or higher, as his 0.79 average makes even 1+ challenging.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Yastrzemski's Hits prop record all games?
Yastrzemski went 30-52-0 on his hits over/under in 2024, hitting the over just 36.6% of the time across 82 games. This represents one of the season's most lopsided prop records, with unders cashing nearly twice as often as overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Yastrzemski Hits all games?
Bet under on Yastrzemski's hits props with high confidence. His 0.79 average sits 0.5 hits below typical lines, creating a 63.4% under rate with +21.1% ROI. This represents one of 2024's most reliable betting edges.
What's Mike Yastrzemski's average Hits all games?
Yastrzemski averaged 0.79 hits per game in 2024, compared to his typical prop line of 1.28 hits. This massive -0.5 differential created consistent under value, as books failed to adjust to his diminished offensive production throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Yastrzemski hits unders when lines are set at 1.5+ hits, maximizing the gap between his 0.79 average and the number. His consistent underperformance makes this prop valuable in virtually all game situations and matchups.