Mike Trout's home run props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on the over side. The superstar is averaging only 0.2 home runs against a typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.3 differential that screams systematic value on the under.
Expert Analysis
This trend reveals a concerning power outage for baseball's premier talent, with Trout managing just two home runs across 10 games while consistently priced as if he's still the MVP-caliber slugger of years past. The 0.2 average against 0.5 lines suggests oddsmakers are either slow to adjust to his current form or banking on name recognition from casual bettors. The four-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained power drought that could stem from mechanical adjustments, nagging injuries, or simply the natural aging curve catching up to a player entering his 30s. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency - Trout isn't alternating between explosive games and quiet ones, but rather showing a steady baseline of diminished power output. The +52.7% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books appear reluctant to properly adjust his home run totals downward. However, regression risk looms large with a player of Trout's caliber, and one vintage performance could quickly shift both his form and the market's perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI create compelling value, especially with Trout's power clearly diminished from peak levels. Target games against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks where the 0.5 line becomes even more attractive. Primary risk is Trout's elite talent eventually breaking through this cold spell, potentially in explosive fashion that could erase weeks of under profits in a single swing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Trout's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Mike Trout has gone 2-8-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. He's managed only 2 total home runs across this span, well below market expectations set by oddsmakers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Trout Home Runs last 10 games?
Lean under on Mike Trout home run props. The 80% under rate and +52.7% ROI on unders shows clear value, especially with his 0.2 average sitting well below typical 0.5 lines during this sustained power outage.
What's Mike Trout's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Mike Trout is averaging 0.2 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a significant -0.3 differential that heavily favors under bettors in the current market environment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Trout home run unders against quality starting pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where the 0.5 line becomes even more attractive given his current 0.2 average and four-game under streak.