Mike Trout's home run production at Angel Stadium has been severely underwhelming, hitting the over just 26.1% of the time across 23 games with a brutal -0.2 differential from the typical 0.5 line. This represents one of the strongest under trends in baseball props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Trout's power struggles at home, averaging just 0.26 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 line. This isn't a small sample fluke - across 23 tracked games spanning nearly a year, Trout has consistently failed to reach his home run props in Anaheim. The -50.2% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overvaluing his power at home, while unders have delivered a robust +41.1% return. The current four-game under streak extends a pattern where Trout has gone seven straight games without hitting the over at his longest stretch. Angel Stadium's dimensions and conditions appear to suppress his power output significantly. The persistence of this trend across different seasons suggests structural factors rather than temporary form issues. While Trout remains an elite talent, the data indicates either the ballpark characteristics, approach adjustments at home, or psychological factors are consistently limiting his home run frequency. The market hasn't fully adjusted to this reality, creating continued value on the under. Without meaningful changes to his swing mechanics or Angel Stadium's conditions, this trend shows little sign of meaningful regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 73.9% under rate and -0.2 average differential create consistent value, though Trout's elite talent prevents this from being a max play. Target games where the line sits at 0.5, as his 0.26 average provides the clearest edge. The main risk is positive regression from a future Hall of Famer, but structural factors suggest this trend has staying power through the current season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mike Trout's Home Runs prop record home games?
Mike Trout has gone 6-17-0 on home run overs at Angel Stadium, hitting just 26.1% of his overs across 23 tracked games. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among star players in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mike Trout Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Mike Trout's home runs at Angel Stadium. The 73.9% under rate and +41.1% ROI provide consistent value, especially when the line is set at 0.5 home runs where his 0.26 average creates the clearest edge.
What's Mike Trout's average Home Runs home games?
Mike Trout averages 0.26 home runs per game in home games, creating a significant -0.2 differential from the standard 0.5 line. This gap represents one of the largest negative differentials among elite power hitters.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mike Trout home run unders when the line is exactly 0.5, as his 0.26 home average provides maximum value. Avoid games after extended road trips where he might be more comfortable, but the trend remains strong regardless.